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    科技股跌慘,但這4只股票需另當別論

    科技股跌慘,但這4只股票需另當別論

    Anne Sraders 2022-02-12
    一位基金經理認為,當前情況并未對軟件行業構成“結構上”的利空。

    最近一段時間,科技股投資者的日子很不好過。受通脹壓力、利率上升和美國國債收益率走高等因素影響,納斯達克指數在過去一個月大幅下跌,即便經過上周五的大漲之后,下跌幅度依然接近7%,與此同時,華爾街則在消化財報造成的不利影響(Facebook母公司Meta等科技巨頭的表現令投資者大失所望)。但在我們進入2022年之際,面對這個動蕩的板塊,有位投資組合經理卻并未喪失信心。

    布魯克·戴恩在高盛資產管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)任董事總經理兼投資組合經理一職,他負責管理的投資組合包括該公司的科技機遇基金(Technology Opportunities Fund)和未來科技領袖股票ETF(Future Tech Leaders Equity ETF)。在接受《財富》雜志采訪時,戴恩表示,“總體而言,就目前的利率上漲情況來看,我們可以認為,股票市場已經超跌?!保ㄟ^去三個月間,科技板塊的跌幅已達兩位數之多。)

    戴恩正在關注一些值得大膽押注的股票,他認為,這些股票具備強勢度過利率上升和技術股低潮階段的動力。

    軟件是戴恩關注的關鍵領域之一。最近一段時間,全球軟件行業的走勢與科技板整體一樣低迷,但戴恩認為,這是一種過度反應,根據高盛內部的一項研究結果,他估計“特別是高增長性軟件公司,其10年期回報率將達到3%或略高的水平,”,與之相比,10年期美國國債的收益率目前為1.9%左右。戴恩指出,雖然當前市場已對“利率上升利空軟件行業”達成“共識”,但他在看過數據后認為,當前情況并未對軟件行業構成“結構上”的利空。

    相反,戴恩認為,“考慮到許多企業在2022年、2023年和2024年或將迎來高速增長,現在入場似乎也是值得考慮的選擇?!?這也是為什么他說,高盛一直在利用此次股價下跌機會抄底部分其看好的科技股,這些股票的股價在最近幾個月都出現了相當幅度的下跌。

    2022年,押注四只科技股

    戴恩指出,即使在高通脹環境下,軟件也能幫助企業提高生產力和運營效率,從而“幫助企業緩解不斷上升的成本壓力?!?

    自動化軟件開發企業UiPath是戴恩看好的公司之一,其核心產品是所謂“機器人流程自動化”軟件。戴恩解釋說,該公司開發的軟件“實質上是機器學習和機器視覺兩種技術的結合,可以幫助實現業務流程自動化”。他指出,該軟件“可以解決一部分原本需要人工處理的重復性工作,從而提高工作效率”,對于那些試圖留住或雇傭員工的企業而言,此類軟件的出現無疑是件好事。戴恩特別提到了該公司極快的增長速度,其截至2022年1月31日止的財年收入增長預計可達46%,戴恩還指出,該公司的云產品和本地任務相關產品均實現了增長。

    戴恩指出,去年4月上市后,UiPath的股價表現并不盡如人意,加之外界擔心該公司獲取新客戶的能力不足,過去6個月間,該公司股價跌幅達44%,因而現在至少可以說,該公司股價距離頂峰尚有一段距離。但戴恩堅持認為,“UiPath仍處于發展的早期階段,還需要讓更廣泛的市場看到自己的增長速度、業務特性和客戶保持率具有可持續性?!彼嘈?,隨著該公司不斷證明自己,“其股票或將得到市場重新估值?!比A爾街估計,UiPath的收入在本財年的增幅將繼續超過33%。戴恩認為,該公司是“投資回報率極高的投資標的,從商業角度來看,也是對沖通脹的絕佳選擇?!?/p>

    戴恩表示,上述趨勢也會推動中國云企業軟件公司——金蝶國際軟件的發展。他指出,“中國正在大規模應用現代化SaaS(軟件即服務)工具”,且“極為偏愛”國產產品,而金蝶正對中國市場的胃口。

    戴恩他說,“中國企業對云技術的重視程度越來越高,我們可以看到許多國有企業在對其基本財務系統與核心ERP(企業資源規劃)解決方案進行現代化改造,而金蝶也將從中受益匪淺?!痹摴镜脑鲩L一直非常強勁,據估計,在截至2021年12月31日止的2021財年中,該公司的營收增長可達30%,另據分析師估計,在2022財年,該公司的銷售額將增長25%左右。但戴恩認為,金蝶和Uipath兩家公司今年的財報很可能將會超出外界預期。

    去年,蘋果(Apple)對隱私政策進行了調整,新政施行之后,企業要想在用戶切換應用時追蹤其操作,必須獲得用戶授權。這一變化對許多科技企業的廣告業務造成了影響,Meta等科技巨頭的股價也因此承壓(Meta表示,受新政影響,該公司將在2022年損失約100億美元)。但戴恩認為,作為一家幫助移動應用和游戲開發者打造應用、融入廣告業務的公司,AppLovin受蘋果新政的負面影響相對較小。戴恩說:“使其得以適應市場的真正原因在于,該公司能夠從自己的游戲和廣告網絡中獲得第一手數據?!?/p>

    戴恩表示,在蘋果施行新政之后,“廣告網絡將僅能看到有限的客戶信息,因此,第一手數據將成為一筆貨真價實的財富?!盇ppLovin的財報就能很好地證明這一點。在截至2021年12月31日止的2021財年,該公司的營收增長據估計可達92%,另據華爾街估計,該公司在2022財年的銷售額或將增長約40%。戴恩認為,市場“大大低估了此項業務的核心增長率”(該股股價上個月下跌約16%)。據戴恩介紹,該公司最近還斥資約11億美元收購了Twitter的廣告平臺MoPub,此舉將進一步擴大其廣告網絡。

    戴恩還很看好社交媒體平臺Snap的發展前景。在剛剛發布的第四季度財報中,Snap首次宣布實現季度盈利,受此消息影響,該股股價迎來一輪暴漲。特別值得一提的是,戴恩認為Snap“在增強現實等領域處于領先地位”,而且“他們的社區非?;钴S”。在各界普遍擔心蘋果隱私政策的調整將造成何種影響之際,戴恩指出,該股的估值已經“大幅回落”(截至目前,其遠期市盈率低于77倍,過去6個月間,其交易量下降約49%),戴恩認為,經過深度回調之后,“該股已為反彈做好了充足準備?!?/p>

    市場劇烈動蕩之際,科技板投資者難免有些緊張,但戴恩鼓勵他們從歷史中找尋信心:“在過去20年里,科技板出現過很多次類似的回調,因為某種外部宏觀因素的介入,擔憂情緒逐漸蔓延開來,”他指出。但歸根結底,“科技和軟件股票之所以表現如此出色,還是因為它們能夠推動全球經濟創造出更多的價值?!?/p>

    而他認為,“這種情況并未改變?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

    譯者:梁宇

    審校:夏林

    最近一段時間,科技股投資者的日子很不好過。受通脹壓力、利率上升和美國國債收益率走高等因素影響,納斯達克指數在過去一個月大幅下跌,即便經過上周五的大漲之后,下跌幅度依然接近7%,與此同時,華爾街則在消化財報造成的不利影響(Facebook母公司Meta等科技巨頭的表現令投資者大失所望)。但在我們進入2022年之際,面對這個動蕩的板塊,有位投資組合經理卻并未喪失信心。

    布魯克·戴恩在高盛資產管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)任董事總經理兼投資組合經理一職,他負責管理的投資組合包括該公司的科技機遇基金(Technology Opportunities Fund)和未來科技領袖股票ETF(Future Tech Leaders Equity ETF)。在接受《財富》雜志采訪時,戴恩表示,“總體而言,就目前的利率上漲情況來看,我們可以認為,股票市場已經超跌?!保ㄟ^去三個月間,科技板塊的跌幅已達兩位數之多。)

    戴恩正在關注一些值得大膽押注的股票,他認為,這些股票具備強勢度過利率上升和技術股低潮階段的動力。

    軟件是戴恩關注的關鍵領域之一。最近一段時間,全球軟件行業的走勢與科技板整體一樣低迷,但戴恩認為,這是一種過度反應,根據高盛內部的一項研究結果,他估計“特別是高增長性軟件公司,其10年期回報率將達到3%或略高的水平,”,與之相比,10年期美國國債的收益率目前為1.9%左右。戴恩指出,雖然當前市場已對“利率上升利空軟件行業”達成“共識”,但他在看過數據后認為,當前情況并未對軟件行業構成“結構上”的利空。

    相反,戴恩認為,“考慮到許多企業在2022年、2023年和2024年或將迎來高速增長,現在入場似乎也是值得考慮的選擇?!?這也是為什么他說,高盛一直在利用此次股價下跌機會抄底部分其看好的科技股,這些股票的股價在最近幾個月都出現了相當幅度的下跌。

    2022年,押注四只科技股

    戴恩指出,即使在高通脹環境下,軟件也能幫助企業提高生產力和運營效率,從而“幫助企業緩解不斷上升的成本壓力?!?

    自動化軟件開發企業UiPath是戴恩看好的公司之一,其核心產品是所謂“機器人流程自動化”軟件。戴恩解釋說,該公司開發的軟件“實質上是機器學習和機器視覺兩種技術的結合,可以幫助實現業務流程自動化”。他指出,該軟件“可以解決一部分原本需要人工處理的重復性工作,從而提高工作效率”,對于那些試圖留住或雇傭員工的企業而言,此類軟件的出現無疑是件好事。戴恩特別提到了該公司極快的增長速度,其截至2022年1月31日止的財年收入增長預計可達46%,戴恩還指出,該公司的云產品和本地任務相關產品均實現了增長。

    戴恩指出,去年4月上市后,UiPath的股價表現并不盡如人意,加之外界擔心該公司獲取新客戶的能力不足,過去6個月間,該公司股價跌幅達44%,因而現在至少可以說,該公司股價距離頂峰尚有一段距離。但戴恩堅持認為,“UiPath仍處于發展的早期階段,還需要讓更廣泛的市場看到自己的增長速度、業務特性和客戶保持率具有可持續性?!彼嘈?,隨著該公司不斷證明自己,“其股票或將得到市場重新估值?!比A爾街估計,UiPath的收入在本財年的增幅將繼續超過33%。戴恩認為,該公司是“投資回報率極高的投資標的,從商業角度來看,也是對沖通脹的絕佳選擇?!?/p>

    戴恩表示,上述趨勢也會推動中國云企業軟件公司——金蝶國際軟件的發展。他指出,“中國正在大規模應用現代化SaaS(軟件即服務)工具”,且“極為偏愛”國產產品,而金蝶正對中國市場的胃口。

    戴恩他說,“中國企業對云技術的重視程度越來越高,我們可以看到許多國有企業在對其基本財務系統與核心ERP(企業資源規劃)解決方案進行現代化改造,而金蝶也將從中受益匪淺?!痹摴镜脑鲩L一直非常強勁,據估計,在截至2021年12月31日止的2021財年中,該公司的營收增長可達30%,另據分析師估計,在2022財年,該公司的銷售額將增長25%左右。但戴恩認為,金蝶和Uipath兩家公司今年的財報很可能將會超出外界預期。

    去年,蘋果(Apple)對隱私政策進行了調整,新政施行之后,企業要想在用戶切換應用時追蹤其操作,必須獲得用戶授權。這一變化對許多科技企業的廣告業務造成了影響,Meta等科技巨頭的股價也因此承壓(Meta表示,受新政影響,該公司將在2022年損失約100億美元)。但戴恩認為,作為一家幫助移動應用和游戲開發者打造應用、融入廣告業務的公司,AppLovin受蘋果新政的負面影響相對較小。戴恩說:“使其得以適應市場的真正原因在于,該公司能夠從自己的游戲和廣告網絡中獲得第一手數據?!?/p>

    戴恩表示,在蘋果施行新政之后,“廣告網絡將僅能看到有限的客戶信息,因此,第一手數據將成為一筆貨真價實的財富?!盇ppLovin的財報就能很好地證明這一點。在截至2021年12月31日止的2021財年,該公司的營收增長據估計可達92%,另據華爾街估計,該公司在2022財年的銷售額或將增長約40%。戴恩認為,市場“大大低估了此項業務的核心增長率”(該股股價上個月下跌約16%)。據戴恩介紹,該公司最近還斥資約11億美元收購了Twitter的廣告平臺MoPub,此舉將進一步擴大其廣告網絡。

    戴恩還很看好社交媒體平臺Snap的發展前景。在剛剛發布的第四季度財報中,Snap首次宣布實現季度盈利,受此消息影響,該股股價迎來一輪暴漲。特別值得一提的是,戴恩認為Snap“在增強現實等領域處于領先地位”,而且“他們的社區非?;钴S”。在各界普遍擔心蘋果隱私政策的調整將造成何種影響之際,戴恩指出,該股的估值已經“大幅回落”(截至目前,其遠期市盈率低于77倍,過去6個月間,其交易量下降約49%),戴恩認為,經過深度回調之后,“該股已為反彈做好了充足準備?!?/p>

    市場劇烈動蕩之際,科技板投資者難免有些緊張,但戴恩鼓勵他們從歷史中找尋信心:“在過去20年里,科技板出現過很多次類似的回調,因為某種外部宏觀因素的介入,擔憂情緒逐漸蔓延開來,”他指出。但歸根結底,“科技和軟件股票之所以表現如此出色,還是因為它們能夠推動全球經濟創造出更多的價值?!?/p>

    而他認為,“這種情況并未改變?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

    譯者:梁宇

    審校:夏林

    It's been a rough time for tech investors of late, with the Nasdaq shaving off nearly 7% in the past month (even with a big Friday rally) as inflation pressures, rising rates, and Treasury yields heat up, all while the Street is digesting earnings (tech stalwarts like Facebook parent Meta disappointed investors). But one portfolio manager isn't shying away from the volatile sector as we head further into 2022.

    Brook Dane, a managing director and portfolio manager at Goldman Sachs Asset Management who manages portfolios including the firm's Technology Opportunities Fund and the Future Tech Leaders Equity ETF, suggests to Fortune that "in general, with the kind of moves that we're seeing in interest rates, we think the stocks have overcorrected based on that." (The tech sector broadly has traded down double-digits in the past three months.)

    For one, Dane is eyeing a few bold bets that he believes have individual drivers that can power through the rising-rate and tech worries.

    One key area Dane is looking is software. The global software industry has fallen in-line with the broader tech market lately, but Dane believes that's an overreaction: "High growth software specifically … is pricing in 10-year rates around 3% or a little bit north of 3%," he estimates, according to internal Goldman Sachs research—levels he believes are higher than rates will go in 2022 (the 10-year Treasury is currently around 1.9%). Although "consensus" is that "rates are going higher, that's bad for software," notes Dane, he's looked at the data and doesn't believe that's "structurally" a negative for the industry.

    Instead, Dane argues "the growth dynamics that we're likely to see across 2022, 2023, [and] 2024 in many of these names make particularly attractive entry points." That's why he says Goldman has been using the selloff as an opportunity to load up on some of their favored tech stocks—all of which have taken a haircut in share prices in recent months.

    4 tech stock bets for 2022

    Even in a high inflation environment, software helps businesses drive productivity and operate more efficiently, Dane notes, "which is another way of saying it helps companies get around rising cost pressures."

    One name Dane is bullish on is automation software maker UiPath. Their core product is software called robotic process automation, "which is essentially combining machine learning, machine vision, and helping automate business processes," Dane explains. It's taking "away repetitive tasks that people would be doing. That's making labor more productive," he notes—a positive for companies trying to retain or hire employees. Dane highlights the company's fast growth, with revenues growing an estimated 46% in its fiscal year ending January 2022, and notes the business is seeing growth in their cloud products as well as for on-premise tasks.

    The stock hasn't had the best ride of late to say the least, down 44% in the past six months, as Dane points to recent poor post-IPO performance (UiPath went public in April 2021) and concerns over the company's ability to gain new customers. But Dane maintains "this is an early stage company that's still showing the wider market the sustainability of the growth rates and their business and their customer retention." He believes as they prove themselves, "the stock is likely to rerate." The Street still estimates UiPath can grow revenues by over 33% in the current fiscal year, and Dane argues the company is "a very high ROI [return on investment], very good ... inflation hedge from a business standpoint."

    Those trends should also boost Kingdee International Software, a China-based cloud enterprise software company, suggests Dane. He notes "you're seeing the adoption of modern SaaS [software as a service] tools in China" where there's a "big preference" for "home grown" products, he argues. That's where Kingdee fits in.

    Dane says there is an "increased emphasis on deploying cloud technologies [in China] and seeing state-owned enterprises modernize their underlying financials and core ERP [enterprise resource planning] solutions, and Kingdee is a big beneficiary of that." The company's growth has been steadily strong, growing revenues by an estimated 30% in its fiscal year ending December 2021, and analysts estimate it can grow sales by around 25% in the current 2022 fiscal year. But for Kingdee and Uipath both, Dane believes they could surprise to the upside in earnings this year.

    Big tech stocks like Meta are taking a hit due to Apple's privacy changes last year, which require users to opt-in to allow companies to track them as they switch between apps—something that's hurt some tech companies' ad businesses (Meta said the change would cost the company roughly $10 billion in 2022). But Dane argues that AppLovin, a company that helps mobile app and game developers grow their apps and incorporate advertising, is more shielded from the negative effects of Apple's changes. "What makes them really well suited to the market," argues Dane, "is that combination of first party data that they can get from their own games with the ad network."

    In a post-Apple-privacy-change world, where "the amount of information that ad networks can see about customers is limited, having that first party data is really a treasure," he says. That's evidenced in AppLovin's earnings (with revenues up an estimated 92% in its fiscal year ending December 2021, while the Street estimates they can grow sales by about 40% in the 2022 fiscal year), and Dane believes the market is "vastly underestimating the core growth rate of this business" (the stock has traded down roughly 16% in the last month). The company also recently bought Twitter's ad platform MoPub for around $1.1 billion, which should further expand AppLovin's ad network, says Dane.

    Dane is also optimistic about social media platform Snap, which just reported its first quarterly profit in its fourth quarter earnings, sending the stock skyrocketing. In particular, Dane believes Snap is "leading in areas like augmented reality," and "they have a very engaged and active community." Amid broader worries about the impacts of Apple's privacy changes, among other things, Dane notes the stock's valuation has "come in dramatically" (it currently trades at a forward price to earnings ratio of under 77, having traded roughly 49% lower in the past six months), which he thinks "sets it up very well."

    While tech investors might currently be white-knuckling it amid the wild swings in the market, Dane encourages them to look at history: "Over the last 20 years, we've seen lots of pull backs like this in the tech market where an exogenous macro factor comes in and people get concerned," he notes. Ultimately, however, "the reason that tech and software ... have done so well is that they're driving the value across the global economy."

    And, he argues, "that's not changing."

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