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    原油供應危機拖累夏季旅游業

    原油供應危機拖累夏季旅游業

    WILL DANIEL 2022-06-03
    如果消費者的開支因此而受到了打擊,那么這對于全球經濟增長來說是個更加嚴峻的問題。

    受烏克蘭戰爭導致的供應中斷影響,原油生產商難以滿足夏季旅游季不斷增長的需求。在過去一個月中,美國燃油價格幾乎每周都會刷新最高記錄。

    與此同時,機票價格自1月以來的漲幅已經超過了37%,讓消費者充分感受到了前所未有的夏季旅游成本壓力。然而,屋漏偏逢連夜雨,一則壞消息近期橫空出世。

    周二,歐盟最終在其第六輪對俄制裁中通過了對俄部分原油禁運的禁令。盡管眾多外交政策專家對此拍手叫好,但對于全球消費者而言,此舉可能會加劇能源價格上漲問題。

    歐盟官員稱,到年底,歐盟將禁運90%的俄羅斯原油,然而通過原油管道輸送的俄羅斯原油并不在禁運之列。管道輸送原油占到了歐盟當前從俄羅斯購買原油總量的三分之一。

    周二,原油禁運令新聞導致國際基準油價布倫特原油期貨(Brent crude oil futures)價格上漲了1.4%,達到了123.3美元/桶, 西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)價格上漲了2.1%,達到了117.5美元/桶。

    這對于旅行者來說是個壞消息,但如果消費者的開支因此而受到了打擊,那么這對于全球經濟增長來說是個更加嚴峻的問題。

    歐洲遭遇油荒,美國油價屢創新高

    國際能源機構(International Energy Agency)負責人法提赫·比羅爾在周二接受德國媒體DerSpiegel的采訪時警告說,原油供應的下滑可能會導致其價格在短期內提升,甚至可能導致歐洲原油的短缺。

    比羅爾表示:“當歐洲和美國的首要假日季開始后,燃油需求會增加。然后短缺可能就會接踵而至,例如,柴油、汽油或煤油,尤其是歐洲?!?/p>

    比羅爾還表示,當前的能源價格漲幅要比上個世紀70年代的原油危機“高的多”,而且可能會持續更長的時間。

    他說:“當時,短缺的僅限于原油。如今,我們同時面臨著原油危機,天然氣危機以及電力危機?!?/p>

    受其影響,美國燃油價格再創新高,達到了4.62美元/加侖,同比增幅超過了51%。

    別忘了中國

    中國解除其在上海和北京執行的嚴格疫情管控也推高了全球原油需求。

    中國官員在周一表示,在其居民經歷了兩個月的封禁之苦后,上海將在6月1日前解除其最嚴格的管控。

    瑞銀全球財富管理公司首席信息官馬克·海夫勒稱,考慮到歐盟對俄原油禁運令導致的供給側限制,上海的解封將為原油價格帶來進一步的利好。

    在周二的一篇紀要中,海夫勒還指出,“生產方面的投資不足”以及原油替代供應的缺乏,會導致關鍵大宗商品的價格處于長期攀升狀態。

    需求破壞以及能源價格對通脹的影響

    受此影響,消費者將面臨有史以來最為嚴峻的夏季旅游季,而且隨著這一被經濟學家稱之為需求破壞的現象成為主流,不斷上漲的能源價格已經導致很多人重新考慮今夏的旅游計劃。

    需求破壞,即某種商品的需求在遭遇價格持續高漲時會持續下滑,可能會因全球已然出現的經濟增長放緩現象而進一步加劇,尤其在發展中國家。

    自今年開始以來,投資銀行和經濟學家紛紛下調了對全球GDP的增速預測。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在4月預計2022年全球GDP增速僅為3.6%,比其1月份的預測下滑了近1個百分點。

    線上經紀商FxPro高級市場分析師亞歷克斯·庫普提克維奇向《財富》雜志透露:“從歷史長河來看,原油價格已接近不可持續的高位。高居不下的能源成本已經導致歐洲和美國這些全球最富有地區的零售消費支出的下滑。毫無疑問的是,受持續高油價的影響,發展中國家的經濟甚至正在經歷更加嚴重的下滑?!?/p>

    不斷增長的能源價格還加劇了西方的通脹現象。盡管一些投行和經濟學家認為,未來幾個月美國的通脹率將較其近40年來的高點有所下滑,但不斷增長的能源價格可能會給這一預測帶來挑戰。

    伊派克?奧茲卡爾德斯卡亞向《財富》雜志透露:“當然,有消息稱,歐洲以及西方的通脹局面可能會在好轉之前變得更加糟糕。盡管我們看到美國通脹數據在本月早些時候有所緩和,但原油價格受到的持續上行壓力也讓美國擔憂不已?!?/p>

    如果通脹率持續增長,需求破壞只會加劇。畢竟,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)5月23日的調查顯示,超過半數的美國人稱,受通脹影響,他們計劃削減開支。

    然而,并非所有專家都預測油氣價格在長期內將持續走高。

    庫普提克維奇表示:“原油的長期走勢依然不甚明朗。目前已經接近120美元的原油市場到底是會持續多年高位運行,還是會重蹈2014年或2008年的崩盤覆轍,這兩方面的概率可謂是旗鼓相當?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

    譯者:馮豐

    審校:夏林

    受烏克蘭戰爭導致的供應中斷影響,原油生產商難以滿足夏季旅游季不斷增長的需求。在過去一個月中,美國燃油價格幾乎每周都會刷新最高記錄。

    與此同時,機票價格自1月以來的漲幅已經超過了37%,讓消費者充分感受到了前所未有的夏季旅游成本壓力。然而,屋漏偏逢連夜雨,一則壞消息近期橫空出世。

    周二,歐盟最終在其第六輪對俄制裁中通過了對俄部分原油禁運的禁令。盡管眾多外交政策專家對此拍手叫好,但對于全球消費者而言,此舉可能會加劇能源價格上漲問題。

    歐盟官員稱,到年底,歐盟將禁運90%的俄羅斯原油,然而通過原油管道輸送的俄羅斯原油并不在禁運之列。管道輸送原油占到了歐盟當前從俄羅斯購買原油總量的三分之一。

    周二,原油禁運令新聞導致國際基準油價布倫特原油期貨(Brent crude oil futures)價格上漲了1.4%,達到了123.3美元/桶, 西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)價格上漲了2.1%,達到了117.5美元/桶。

    這對于旅行者來說是個壞消息,但如果消費者的開支因此而受到了打擊,那么這對于全球經濟增長來說是個更加嚴峻的問題。

    歐洲遭遇油荒,美國油價屢創新高

    國際能源機構(International Energy Agency)負責人法提赫·比羅爾在周二接受德國媒體DerSpiegel的采訪時警告說,原油供應的下滑可能會導致其價格在短期內提升,甚至可能導致歐洲原油的短缺。

    比羅爾表示:“當歐洲和美國的首要假日季開始后,燃油需求會增加。然后短缺可能就會接踵而至,例如,柴油、汽油或煤油,尤其是歐洲?!?/p>

    比羅爾還表示,當前的能源價格漲幅要比上個世紀70年代的原油危機“高的多”,而且可能會持續更長的時間。

    他說:“當時,短缺的僅限于原油。如今,我們同時面臨著原油危機,天然氣危機以及電力危機?!?/p>

    受其影響,美國燃油價格再創新高,達到了4.62美元/加侖,同比增幅超過了51%。

    別忘了中國

    中國解除其在上海和北京執行的嚴格疫情管控也推高了全球原油需求。

    中國官員在周一表示,在其居民經歷了兩個月的封禁之苦后,上海將在6月1日前解除其最嚴格的管控。

    瑞銀全球財富管理公司首席信息官馬克·海夫勒稱,考慮到歐盟對俄原油禁運令導致的供給側限制,上海的解封將為原油價格帶來進一步的利好。

    在周二的一篇紀要中,海夫勒還指出,“生產方面的投資不足”以及原油替代供應的缺乏,會導致關鍵大宗商品的價格處于長期攀升狀態。

    需求破壞以及能源價格對通脹的影響

    受此影響,消費者將面臨有史以來最為嚴峻的夏季旅游季,而且隨著這一被經濟學家稱之為需求破壞的現象成為主流,不斷上漲的能源價格已經導致很多人重新考慮今夏的旅游計劃。

    需求破壞,即某種商品的需求在遭遇價格持續高漲時會持續下滑,可能會因全球已然出現的經濟增長放緩現象而進一步加劇,尤其在發展中國家。

    自今年開始以來,投資銀行和經濟學家紛紛下調了對全球GDP的增速預測。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在4月預計2022年全球GDP增速僅為3.6%,比其1月份的預測下滑了近1個百分點。

    線上經紀商FxPro高級市場分析師亞歷克斯·庫普提克維奇向《財富》雜志透露:“從歷史長河來看,原油價格已接近不可持續的高位。高居不下的能源成本已經導致歐洲和美國這些全球最富有地區的零售消費支出的下滑。毫無疑問的是,受持續高油價的影響,發展中國家的經濟甚至正在經歷更加嚴重的下滑?!?/p>

    不斷增長的能源價格還加劇了西方的通脹現象。盡管一些投行和經濟學家認為,未來幾個月美國的通脹率將較其近40年來的高點有所下滑,但不斷增長的能源價格可能會給這一預測帶來挑戰。

    伊派克?奧茲卡爾德斯卡亞向《財富》雜志透露:“當然,有消息稱,歐洲以及西方的通脹局面可能會在好轉之前變得更加糟糕。盡管我們看到美國通脹數據在本月早些時候有所緩和,但原油價格受到的持續上行壓力也讓美國擔憂不已?!?/p>

    如果通脹率持續增長,需求破壞只會加劇。畢竟,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)5月23日的調查顯示,超過半數的美國人稱,受通脹影響,他們計劃削減開支。

    然而,并非所有專家都預測油氣價格在長期內將持續走高。

    庫普提克維奇表示:“原油的長期走勢依然不甚明朗。目前已經接近120美元的原油市場到底是會持續多年高位運行,還是會重蹈2014年或2008年的崩盤覆轍,這兩方面的概率可謂是旗鼓相當?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

    譯者:馮豐

    審校:夏林

    U.S. gas prices have hit fresh record highs nearly every week over the past month as oil producers, affected by disruptions from the war in Ukraine, struggle to match rising demand from the summer travel season.

    At the same time, airfare prices have spiked over 37% since January, setting up consumers for summer travel costs they’ve never seen before—and that was all before the latest bad news.

    On Tuesday, the European Union finally included a partial ban on Russian oil in its sixth set of sanctions against the country. While the move has been applauded by many foreign policy experts, it will likely bring more energy price headaches for consumers worldwide.

    EU officials said that 90% of Russian crude imports will be cut by the end of the year, but there will be an exemption for oil delivered from Russia via pipelines, which accounts for up to one-third of the bloc’s current purchases from the country.

    News of the ban led Brent crude oil futures, the international benchmark, to jump 1.4% to $123.3 per barrel on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising 2.1% to $117.5 per barrel.

    That’s bad news for travelers, but it could be even worse news for global economic growth if consumers are discouraged from spending altogether.

    Shortages in Europe, more record highs in the U.S.

    The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned on Tuesday in an interview with the German outlet Der Spiegel that falling oil supplies will likely lead prices to remain elevated in the near term and could even cause shortages in Europe.

    "When the main holiday season starts in Europe and the U.S., fuel demand will rise," Birol said. "Then we could see shortages, for example, in diesel, petrol, or kerosene, particularly in Europe."

    Birol added that current energy price increases are "much bigger" than what was seen during the oil shocks of the 1970s—and they could last longer, too.

    “Back then it was just about oil," he said. "Now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis, and an electricity crisis simultaneously."

    In the U.S., gas prices responded to the ban by notching yet another record high of $4.62 per gallon. That’s a more than 51% jump compared to the same period a year ago.

    Don’t forget about China

    China’s move to end its strict lockdown policy in Shanghai and Beijing is also adding to the global demand for oil.

    Chinese officials said on Monday they will scrap the strictest lockdown measures in Shanghai by June 1 after two months of hardship for residents.

    It’s a move that UBS Global Wealth Management’s CIO Mark Haefele said will cause “further upside” for oil prices ahead when coupled with supply-side restrictions from the EU’s ban on Russian imports.

    In a Tuesday research note, Haefele added that “underinvestment in production” and a lack of alternative supply for oil should cause the critical commodity’s price to remain “higher for longer” as well.

    Demand destruction and energy prices’ effects on inflation

    As a result, consumers are facing one of the toughest summer travel seasons in history, and rising energy prices are already causing many to second-guess travel decisions for this summer as a phenomenon economists call demand destruction takes hold.

    Demand destruction—or a sustained decline in the demand for a certain good amid persistently high prices—could exacerbate an economic growth slowdown that is already underway worldwide, especially in developing nations.

    Forecasts for global GDP growth from investment banks and economists have been repeatedly cut since the start of the year, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) saying in April that it expects global GDP will rise by just 3.6% in 2022, or nearly a percentage point less than its January estimates.

    “From a historical perspective, [oil] prices are close to unsustainably high levels,” Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at the online broker FxPro, told Fortune. “Already, high energy costs are causing a decline in retail consumption in Europe and the U.S., the world’s wealthiest regions. No doubt developing countries are experiencing an even more significant slowdown in their economies because of prevailing high fuel prices.”

    Rising energy prices also darken the picture when it comes to inflation in the West. Although some investment banks and economists have argued that inflation in the U.S. should come down from its nearly four-decade highs in the coming months, elevated energy prices could challenge that prediction.

    “Of course, the news suggests that the inflation situation in Europe, and in the West, could get worse before it gets better,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya told Fortune. “Even though we saw some easing in U.S. inflation figures earlier this month, the relentless positive pressure on oil prices is very much worrying across the Atlantic.”

    If inflation remains elevated, demand destruction will only worsen. After all, more than half of Americans have said they plan to cut back on spending due to inflation in a May 23 Morgan Stanley survey.

    Still, not every expert is predicting oil and gas prices will remain elevated over the long term.

    “The longer-term prospects [of oil] remain an open question,” Kuptsikevich said. “The chances are now roughly equal that the oil market at levels near $120 remains at the foot of an extended multiyear rally or is ready to repeat the collapse of 2014 or 2008.”

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